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The Honolulu Advertiser


By Sam Borden
The (Westchester, N.Y.) Journal News

Posted on: Wednesday, October 28, 2009

HOMEGROWN REPORT
Even on paper, Yanks to beat Phillies in six

 • Yankees, Phillies carry big sticks

The Yankees and Phillies faced each other three times this season, with the Phillies winning twice. Now the teams lock up in a best-of-seven series with a world championship on the line. A position-by-position breakdown shows they're pretty evenly matched — a sign that this series could be a long one.

CATCHER

Yankees: Jorge Posada has had his moments during the postseason — the game-winning home run in Game 3 of the ALDS stands out — but hasn't been able to sustain success at the plate, entering the World Series hitting .258 in nine playoff games. Backup Jose Molina figures to continue getting starts when A.J. Burnett takes the mound.

Phillies: Carlos Ruiz has a reputation as a defensive catcher but his production at the plate this postseason has been remarkable: he hit .308 in the NLDS then .385 in the NLCS against the Dodgers. He also hit .293 against lefties this season, which is important with CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte looming. Normally you'd give Posada the edge here on reputation alone, but Ruiz has been too hot to ignore.

Edge: Even

FIRST BASE

Yankees: Mark Teixeira hasn't looked great at the plate during his first postseason with the Yankees, striking out in eight of his 27 ALCS at-bats. That said, he was nearly the Game 5 hero, rifling a three-run double during a six-run rally before the Yankees bullpen melted down. Regardless of his offense, Teixeira has been a game-saver on the defensive side and his glove is what gives him the edge in this match-up.

Phillies: Ryan Howard comes into the World Series on a roll, having crushed the ball in the Phillies' two previous series (.333 in the Division Series, .375 in the NLCS). Howard was named the MVP of the five-game win over the Dodgers and he's got six home runs in 26 career postseason games.

Edge: Yankees

SECOND BASE

Yankees: Robinson Cano has a tendency to be maddening to Yankees fans, and he's continued that during the postseason. Cano's struggles with runners in scoring position were hard to comprehend during the regular season and they've been magnified in the postseason as the bottom of the Yankees lineup has failed to produce. Cano is hitting .229 during the playoffs but did drive in four of his five runs during the ALCS.

Phillies: Chase Utley is an all-around superstar and one of the best second basemen in the game. He hits, runs the bases and plays stellar defense, though his track record in the postseason is erratic; he played well in the first round this year but is entering the World Series off a .211 performance vs. Los Angeles. There are also lingering questions about Utley's health, as he had a hip surgery similar to Alex Rodriguez's.

Edge: Phillies

THIRD BASE

Yankees: Alex Rodriguez has been an absolute monster during the playoffs and could have certainly been named the MVP of the ALCS (the honor went to Sabathia). Rodriguez is hitting .438 with a ridiculous 1.516 OPS in the postseason, and by the end of the ALCS the Angels were just pitching around him.

Phillies: Pedro Feliz is among the more undistinguished members of the Phillies lineup, and he hasn't done much to make himself known during this postseason. Feliz is a combined 5-for-31 in both previous series, and is known for being a contact hitter (which means he strikes out very infrequently). Unfortunately for the Phillies, it also means he's notorious for grounding into double plays (97 times in six seasons).

Edge: Yankees

SHORTSTOP

Yankees: Derek Jeter continues to earn his reputation as the most clutch October performer of his generation, and it's not just at the plate — he's made at least two critical defensive plays so far this postseason for the Yankees as well. Jeter comes into the World Series with a .435 OBP and has continued to be a force from the leadoff spot. He's also shown pop, hitting three home runs in 37 at-bats.

Phillies: Jimmy Rollins had mostly been having a down year before delivering the game-winning (and series-turning) hit in Game 4 against the Dodgers. That big hit aside, though, Rollins has struggled and Phillies fans surely remember he was hitting .205 back in July. Still, he has the ability to do everything — hit for power, run the bases, make great plays in the field — and is a threat to break out at anytime.

Edge: Yankees

LEFT FIELD

Yankees: Johnny Damon had an awful Division Series but revived himself in the ALCS, rewarding Joe Girardi's faith in him by going 9-for-30 with two homers. Especially at Yankee Stadium, he's always a threat to flip one over the right-field fence. Damon's defense, however, remains disturbingly inconsistent and the Phillies have aggressive baserunners who will try to take advantage of his weak arm.

Phillies: Raul Ibanez hasn't been particularly productive during the postseason and enters the World Series 7-for-31 (.226) with only one homer — a far cry from the 34 he hit during the regular season. Still, Ibanez has found a way to drive in nine runs and is an imposing force in the middle of the Phillies lineup. Look for Charlie Manuel to use Ben Francisco as a defensive replacement late in games.

Edge: Phillies

CENTER FIELD

Yankees: Like Damon, Melky Cabrera also enjoyed a resurgence during the second round after struggling against the Twins. Cabrera finished the ALCS 9-for-23 and drove in four runs (all in Game 4), showing that he isn't necessarily the black hole at the bottom of the lineup he had been previously. Don't forget Cabrera's knack for big hits either; he led the Yankees in walkoff pies this season, smacking three of the Yankees' 15 game-winning hits during the regular season.

Phillies: St. Anthony alum Shane Victorino from Maui is a Chone Figgins-type player but with more polish and, during this postseason, a ton more production. Victorino led the Phillies with seven NLDS hits and comes into the World Series with a 1.161 OPS. He's also stolen two bases. Victorino is also regarded as one of the best defensive outfielders, combining his speed with an above-average ability to read fly balls.

Edge: Phillies

RIGHT FIELD

Yankees: Nick Swisher has been the Yankees biggest question mark, and Girardi had to "sleep on it" before keeping Swisher in the Game 6 lineup. Swisher responded by going 1-for-3, nudging his postseason numbers up to a woeful 4-for-32. Even more surprising is that Swisher isn't even working his customary walks — he has only three in nine games and has struck out 11 times.

Phillies: Jayson Werth hit 36 home runs during the regular season and has continued to mash during the playoffs, crushing two homers in the NLCS clincher and three more during the Division Series. His 1.207 playoff OPS leads the Phillies and he's scored nine runs. He can be prone to the strikeout, though, whiffing 11 times in nine games.

Edge: Phillies

DESIGNATED HITTER

Yankees: Hideki Matsui will be out of the lineup during the games in Philadelphia, and he's been erratic during the postseason, working a .395 OBP but only driving in five runs and striking out seven times.

Phillies: Manuel will likely use Ibanez as his DH in games started by a lefty, which means defensive-minded Francisco would get a start in left field. If Ibanez plays the field (as he probably would against a righty), Matt Stairs or Greg Dobbs — both of whom are typically bench players — would be the DH.

Edge: Yankees

STARTING PITCHING

Yankees: The Yankees have made it to the World Series on the strength of their pitching, with only one of their nine games not being a quality start. Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte were as good as the Yankees could have wanted in the first two rounds, but it's likely that a fourth starter will be needed during the World Series. That figures to be Chad Gaudin, who was used sparingly out of the bullpen the past few weeks. It's also possible that Girardi could ask his top three pitchers — particularly Sabathia — to make starts on short rest.

Phillies: Cliff Lee gives the Phillies an answer to Sabathia at the front of the rotation but it's far less-certain after that. Cole Hamels was a stud in the World Series a year ago yet has struggled in October this time around (6.75 ERA in three starts). After that comes Pedro Martinez (a total wildcard), righty Joe Blanton and, perhaps, rookie J.A. Happ, both of whom haven't been particularly effective in the playoffs.

Edge: Yankees

BULLPEN

Yankees: Mariano Rivera worked the final two innings of the ALCS clincher and has been as good as ever this year. What comes behind him, however, is more of a question mark with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain showing some worrying inconsistency during the first two rounds. Look for lefties Damaso Marte and Phil Coke to get plenty of appearances in this series, as the Phillies boast a lineup full of left-handed hitters.

Phillies: Brad Lidge was one of the worst closers in baseball during the regular season and was pulled from the job by Manuel only to regain it in the postseason. Amazingly, Lidge now joins Rivera as the only two closers among the eight playoff teams not to blow a save. Behind him is a group of relievers with varying levels of success: Chad Durbin should get plenty of looks, as will Ryan Madson, who has blown two saves already during the playoffs.

Edge: Yankees

BENCH

Yankees: Brett Gardner, Jerry Hairston, Francisco Cervelli and Molina figure to keep their spots on the roster, though pinch-runner Freddy Guzman could be dropped in favor of pinch-hitter Eric Hinske, because extra bats will be more useful during games in the NL park.

Phillies: Stairs is a pinch-hit power threat (just ask Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton) and the Phillies also have Dobbs, who is similar to Hairston in that he can play almost anywhere. Miguel Cairo is a familiar face — he played with the Yankees in 2004 and 2006-07.

Edge: Even

MANAGER

Yankees: Girardi has only lost twice during his first run into the postseason as a manager, but he's heard plenty of criticism anyway for how he's handled his bullpen, with some observers saying he's over-managing. With the added element of the pitcher hitting in three games during the World Series, Girardi's style — and decisions — will get even more scrutiny.

Phillies: Manuel has also been tagged with the "over-managing" label on occasion, but it's hard to knock the leader of the defending champs. Manuel has won 18 of his last 23 postseason games, and will have plenty of tough choices to make — especially when it comes to his pitching — during this series.

Edge: Phillies

PREDICTION

Yankees in six