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The Honolulu Advertiser
Posted on: Friday, September 16, 2005

Other top airlines avoid fiscal turbulence

By David Koenig
Associated Press

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DALLAS — Unlike two carriers that filed for bankruptcy this week, American Airlines, the nation's largest carrier, already has cut wages sharply, eked out a small profit and piled up more than $3 billion in cash.

Analysts say American and Continental Airlines Inc., the No. 5 carrier, are unlikely to follow rivals Delta Air Lines Inc. and Northwest Airlines Corp. into bankruptcy anytime soon. But American — which barely avoided bankruptcy two years ago — and Continental also are struggling with high fuel prices and big pension obligations.

If Delta and Northwest use the bankruptcy process to dump their pension obligations and cut employees' pay, it could force American and Continental to do the same, analysts say.

"The managements at Delta and Northwest are going to be very aggressive about cutting costs. It's going to be tougher for other legacy carriers like American and Continental to compete against all these bankrupt carriers," said Ray Neidl, an analyst with Calyon Securities.

With the parents of United Airlines and US Airways already reorganizing, four of the six legacy carriers — those that existed before deregulation in 1978 — are now in bankruptcy after four years of sluggish business travel, low fares and high fuel prices.

American's parent, Fort Worth, Texas-based AMR Corp., has lost $7.4 billion since the beginning of 2001, yet it may be the strongest financially of the big airlines. It earned $58 million in the April-June period, despite a 47 percent jump in fuel costs to $1.35 billion.

AMR sits on $3.4 billion in cash and short-term investments.

AMR's relative health is attributed largely to the fact that it was the first major carrier to sharply cut wages and benefits. In 2003, American's employees agreed to $1.8 billion in annual wage and benefit concessions, most of it from unionized pilots, flight attendants, mechanics and ramp workers.

The airline's lawyers were poised to file bankruptcy papers if the unions voted down the concessions, which left workers "forced to choose between two very bad alternatives," said Ralph Hunter, president of the pilots' union. American also cut thousands of jobs.

Hunter said he doesn't see an immediate risk of bankruptcy but said that American may seek to get more work out of the same number of pilots, or the same amount of work with fewer pilots. He didn't rule out further pay cuts but suggested that American would have to protect current pension plans to preserve its recently improved relations with the unions.

Chief Executive Gerard Arpey "can't make us do anything," Hunter said. "He has to show us the consequences if we don't do what may need to be done." That said, he added, "I've got some guys who want to burn the place down for what we've already done" on concessions.

Union officials said AMR made a $74.4 million payment to the company's pension plans on Wednesday, but it still has a sizable deficit — $2.69 billion at the end of 2004 — and the company and its unions are lobbying Congress for relief.

Tommie Hutto-Blake, president of the flight attendants' union at American, applauded the pension payment but said workers are worried by the new bankruptcy filings.

"They're scared — they would be crazy not to be concerned," she said.

Continental is no stranger to the bankruptcy process. It reorganized twice in the 1990s, and many analysts credit that experience with giving the Houston-based carrier lower costs than its rivals.

Last year, Continental set out to cut an additional $500 million in labor spending and has achieved $418 million of that, while negotiations continue with flight attendants. The company posted a $100 million profit in the second quarter and padded its cash and short-term investments to more than $2 billion. Continental's year-end pension shortfall was $1.58 billion.

A spokesman said Continental was better positioned than other network airlines but not immune to rivals getting a cost advantage from bankruptcy protection. He said the company expected to "be a survivor."

AMR shares fell 27 cents to close at $11.86, and Continental shares fell 44 cents to close at $11.71, yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange.