Crude oil rose to a record $68 a barrel in New York on concern that a storm may disrupt output in the Gulf of Mexico, where 30 percent of U.S. oil is produced.

Tropical Storm Katrina is forecast to reach hurricane strength before crossing Florida today and moving into the gulf, according to the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. Last year prices jumped at least $10 a barrel, or 22 percent, in the month after Ivan, a Category 4 hurricane, swept through the area, cutting production and damaging rigs.

"We saw last year just how much oil shot up after Ivan," said Gerard Burg, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. "We could certainly get to $80" if Katrina causes similar disruption.

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 68 cents, or 1 percent, to a record $68 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Last year, Hurricane Ivan killed 25 people in the U.S. and cut oil production in the region by 7 percent, causing $7 billion in damage to oil platforms and pipelines.

Weather models show Katrina will probably head into the gulf before moving north and striking the Florida panhandle, said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist with private forecaster Earth Satellite Corp. in Rockville, Md. That would miss the main oil and gas regions stretching from Mobile Bay to Corpus Christi, Texas, he said Tuesday.

EarthSat shows a 15 percent chance of the storm threatening production areas, he said. On its present track, Katrina would miss oil refineries and gas production plants along the coast from Texas to Alabama.

"The likelihood that there will be any damage to the oil and gas industry from this storm is absolutely minimal," said Mike Armbruster, co-founder of Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Laguna Hills, Calif. "There is no fundamental justification for this rally," he said. "At $68 and above I'm a seller."