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Posted on: Thursday, March 22, 2001



Census reveals O'ahu suburb shift

By Walter Wright
Advertiser Staff Writer

Some of O'ahu's suburban areas declined in population over the past decade, experts say, as children grew up and moved to newer neighborhoods such as Kapolei and Mililani Mauka.

The 2000 numbers show slow or no growth in older population areas on O'ahu, with a definite shift to newer developments such as Kapolei.

Advertiser library photo • Aug. 17, 2000

Census figures released this week show that seven of 12 of the most populated census regions on O'ahu showed a decline in population since 1990, even though the island's count increased by 4.8 percent. Overall, the state population increased 9.3 percent.

"The kids are gone," said Don Bremner, an urban planner who lives in Kailua. "Check with the Department of Education. They are all projecting decreases in school attendance."

The census data creates a contradictory picture of decreasing population pockets in the midst of overall growth because the census did not take into account new communities that didn't begin flourishing until the 1990s.

The numbers show that the population of Mililani Town, for example, decreased by 2.6 percent, but the area as defined by the census does not include the growing Mililani Mauka subdivision, which has more than 10,000 people.

"The people who live (in Mililani) on my side of H-2 Freeway are getting older," said Richard Poirier, chairman of the Waipi'o-Mililani-Helemanu Neighborhood Board and planning program manager for the State Office of Planning.

"There may be growth in Mililani Mauka, but on my side of the highway there is no more in-filling, no more new houses being built."

Peter Iszard, member relations manager of the Mililani Town Association, which represents homeowners in both Mililani Town and Mililani Mauka, agreed.

"The actual Mililani Town is 30-plus years old, and probably what has occurred is a number of the families here have gotten older and their children have left the nest, and therefore there has been some adjustment." Iszard said.

As of May 2000, the population of Mililani Mauka was estimated by land developer Castle & Cooke at 11,350, a population which didn't even exist in 1990.

Campbell Estate, on whose land much of the "second city" of Kapolei is being developed, estimated in 1998 that the region's population, which was 17,000 in 1990, would increase to more than 50,000 last year.

Jan Nakamoto of the State Data Center says the size of the average household in Hawai'i declined from 3.01 persons in 1990 to 2.87 persons in 1998, the most recent year available.

"It's guys like me," said Poirier. "I've been here for 30 years. Your goal is to raise the kids, and your kids leave and then you think 'I'll move into town,' but you find you don't want to buy a condo with a new mortgage.

"You want your home to be all on one floor, you don't want stairs, and you remember you are a part of the community where you live."

The slump in housing prices also has kept homeowners in some of the more established suburbs, he said, where more services are available.

"When we first moved out here, there was no H-2, no stores. You went to GEM in Waipahu to get groceries. But now we have everything out here, except maybe some more decent restaurants," Poirier said.

Ed Gore, spokesman for the U.S. Census Office, agreed that "average household size is the big one" among explanations for decline in population where it is measured.

There are some significant declines in certain areas of O'ahu which are obvious.

Reduction in the number military personnel assigned to Schofield Barracks in the past decade accounts for much of the 26.4 percent drop in population within those boundaries.

In Wahiawa, the demise of plantation agriculture contributed to a 7 percent drop in population over the past decade.

"Pineapple died," says Bob Schmitt, a retired state statistician.